ELEZIONI IN GRECIA 17 GIUGNO 2012

Oggi si vota in Grecia.
I Greci vogliono tornare indipendenti, vogliono rivivere con la loro politica monetaria e ci riusciranno, principalmente perchè non vogliono essere schiavi monetari di nessuno, avendo loro potenzialità e fantasia che altri paesi dell'Europa hanno soffocato in questi ultimi dieci anni.

I Greci nel 1998 avevano un consumo per abitante, relativamente ad alimentari, abbigliamento, spese per alloggio, sanità, divertimenti, ristoranti, alberghi, varie di € 6.048 contro i € 10.614 dell'Italia e ad esempio € 14.883 della Germania.

Niente è cambiato rispetto a molti anni fa in termini di parametro analitico, fatto cento quel valore 'greco' si sono mantenute le stesse distanze, è molto cambiata invece la politica fiscale.

Ecco perchè oggi la Grecia voterà per cercare una sua indipendenza.
Una indipendenza che dovrà trovare un concorde accordo tra la estrema destra e la estrema sinistra.
Anche perchè il sistema borsistico recepirà negativamente quanto avverrà in Grecia. Quindi se tutti speravano in una speculazione post voto a favore della conferma dell'euro nel paese ellenico, hanno fatto i conti senza l'oste.
Questo è il mio personale pensiero.

Mario Mirabelli

Fonte dei dati L'Expansion, Gennaio 1998

NON C'E' TRE SENZA QUATTRO (ERRORI) DEL PROF.

Di seguto un brano tratto da Facebook.com e da altri siti i cui link sono allegati alla fine.



"Nel giugno 1981, una commissione di studio, presieduta da Paolo Baffi, direttore generale di Bankitalia, deliberò di seguire lo schema d'un giovanotto, molto stimato dai Rothschild, tale Mario Monti, il quale propose l'emissione di titoli a lungo termine, con aste mensili e quindicinali, in modo...... che il rendimento cedolare fosse fissato dal mercato, con scadenze tra i 5 e i 7 anni.

Il che, a detta del professore, garantiva il potere d'acquisto e, secondo gli esiti delle aste, un piccolo rendimento dell'1-2%. Il Tesoro, zufolò Monti, avrebbe avuto da 5 a 7 anni per programmare e finanziare meglio la spesa pubblica. La proposta passò con standing ovation. Il deficit andò su come un proiettile. Le spese aumentarono invece di diminuire. Mentre Mario Monti procurava il credito a tassi impossibili, aumentarono tasse e benzina, le spese sanitarie sfondarono di mille miliardi di lirette il finanziamento statale. "

NEL 1989 COME "CONSULENTE ESPERTO" DEL MINISTRO DEL BILANCIO CIRINO POMICINO:

"... Eppure,il premier Mario Monti, chiamato a salvare l'Italia dai gorghi del default, tra il 1989 e il 1992, erano i tempi del sesto e settimo governo Andreotti, non riuscì a impedire il peggio. Cioè l'esplosione del rapporto tra debito e pil preludio della grande tempesta finanziaria che al principio degli anni Novanta costrinse Giuliano Amato alla manovra da 103.000 miliardi di vecchie lire. In quei tre anni il peso del debito balzò dal 93,1% del 1989 al 98% del 1991 e al 105,2% del 1992. Un vero boom, insomma, pari al 12,9% in termini relativi e al 44,5% in cifre assolute, da 533,14 miliardi di euro a 799,5 "

ED ORA, SECONDO VOI, DAL NOVEMBRE 2011, CHIAMATO QUASI D'IMPERIO DA "O RE" NAPOLITANO, MONTI MARIO E' ADVENUTO A NOI QUALE "NUME TUTELARE" DELLA NOSTRA ECONOMIA PER UN NUOVO "CRESCI ITALIA",
O COME "ACCABADORA NAZIONALE" PER ACCOMPAGNARE NELLA VIA DELL'"EURO SENZA SPERANZA" GLI ULTIMI "SINGULTI" CONVULSI E FERALI DELLA NOSTRA ITALICA DIGNITA' ED INDIPENDENZA ???

"... In termini di Teoria dei Mass Media, sintetizzata, sarebbe questa la fase due dell’attuale governo italiano, quella succeduta al “decreto salva-Italia”??? Si sono dimenticati di spiegare chi ha salvato chi, come, dove, quando e per quanto) e che il nostro baldo ragionier Mario Monti, a metà gennaio, ebbe la sfrontatezza di definire “la fase della crescita e dello sviluppo”.
Stanno lanciando la moda della “sistematica produzione di falsi”.
Avendo capito di non essere assolutamente in grado né di gestire l’attuale travaglio del paese, né tantomeno sviluppare delle idee creative per il bene comune della nazione, dando fiato all’economia, rilanciando gli investimenti e allargando l’occupazione aprendo il mercato del lavoro, il governo si dedica ormai sistematicamente alla produzione di falsi. Dimostrati e dimostrabili anche da un bambino."






http://www.italiaoggi.it/giornali/dettaglio_giornali.asp?preview=false&accessMode=FA&id=1768757&codiciTestate=1&sez=hgiornali&testo&titolo=Lemme+lemme+la+Germania+si+sta+acquistando+la+Sicilia

 http://sergiodicorimodiglianji.blogspot.it/2012/04/il-governo-monti-dice-bugie-diffondono.html

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=307809829292649&set=a.145529325520701.36299.145336488873318&type=3&theater

Mario Mirabelli Centro Studi Analisi Statistiche Modena

Germany Is Preparing for Greek Bankruptcy

Autore: 
Edward Harrison

The mood in Germany is still about cutting Greece loose to save Italy and Spain. My translation of an excerpt of a German-language article from Spiegel is below:

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) is preparing for a bankruptcy in Greece, according to to SPIEGEL sources. Finance ministry officials are playing through all the scenarios which could arise in the event of a default in the country. There are basically two variations of a Greek bust. In the first, the country remains inside the monetary union. In the other, it leaves the Euro currency, and reinstitutes the drachma again. The EFSF, the European rescue fund, plays a key role in the deliberations. It must be be equipped with the new powers which were agreed at the crisis summit in late July as soon as possible.
Two mechanisms are taking center stage in Germany’s deliberations: First, Schäuble’s officials are focused on preventive credit lines aimed at helping countries like Spain or Italy, if investors refuse to lend to them borrow following a Greek insolvency. Banks in many countries in the euro zone could also become dependent on billions from the rescue fund, because they would have to write off their holdings of Greek government bonds. Such consequences can be expected, regardless of whether Greece stays in the euro zone or leaves.

The article goes on to mention that Greece’s Finance Minister has recently announced that the economy is expected to contract by a full 5% instead of 3.8% as assumed during the previous rounds of bailout negotiation. The budget deficit target cannot be met in that case. So clearly, the Germans are now forced to face the prospect of default in Greece.
There are two schools of thought about a Greek default concerning Spain and Italy. Portugal and Ireland are separate less systemic issues. In the one school, contagion increases and Spain and Italy come under pressure. The Germans are making preparations for this eventuality. In the second school of thought, a Greek default lessens pressure on Greece and Italy as Greece is seen as “a special case”.
For example, the Spanish daily El Pais writes (my translation):

The countries of the euro zone breached the deficit limit (3% of GDP) and debt limit (60%) established by the Maastricht Treaty on 137 occasions between 2000 and 2010, according to Eurostat. Germany, the country that now stands as a champion of fiscal discipline, and France exceeded these limits 14 times each, while Spain and Ireland, did so only 4 to 5 times respectively – and never before the recent crisis. The best students were Finland, Luxembourg and Estonia which always complied with the rules.
Greece, however, violated both the deficit and debt limit every year. Also exceeding the maximum public debt limit in the eleven years analyzed by Eurostat (see accompanying table)were Italy, Belgium and Austria. The criterion which limits public deficits to a maximum of 3% was exceeded on 60 occasions. The deficit ceiling is the main criteria agreed in the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), established in 1997. The SGP was the instrument designed to monitor public finances of the euro zone countries to compensate for the lack of fiscal policy in the euro zone layout.

The primary insinuation of the article is that the Germans are hypocrites in that they were in violation of the SGP repeatedly before the crisis and now they are acting as if they are the paragons of fiscal virtue. This is something I discussed in detail in my May 2010 article “Spain is the perfect example of a country that never should have joined the euro zone.” But the undertone here is also about Greece being a special case, a debtor that was repeatedly in violation of the stability and growth pact which deserves to be treated differently. And, yes, in Germany and the Netherlands, there is a lot more sympathy for Ireland which kept budget discipline pre-crisis and has attempted to take on austerity with zeal post-crisis.
Nevertheless, the question about contagion really hinges on the ECB at this point. The EFSF is too small to deal with either Spain or Italy effectively while they attempt to get back under the 3% hurdle and their bond spreads remain extra-wide. And the ECB is an unreliable provider of liquidity. The resignation of ECB chief economist Juergen Stark tells us that. When I say “the euro zone is coming apart at the seams now”, I mean that political cohesion is all but gone. The policy outlook is extremely volatile as major policy makers in the EU, in member states, and at the ECB have extremely discordant policy messages. Some like the Dutch Prime Minister are openly talking of how to break up the euro.
Let’s go further and talk about ‘openness’ in the context of rising economic nationalism and a double dip recession which strains the fiscal rectitutde of all euro member states. Europe is going to become more conservative, more nationalistic and more xenophobic on European-wide issues like free trade, open borders, and free labour movement. The same is true in the US. As I said in April:

Again, I do appreciate a well-argued case that this is not what is likely to happen. But unless we see a multi-year recovery economy in which the nagging debt and default issues are entirely removed, economic nationalism will return with a vengeance.

In my view that means that the European experiment will be under great stress. The Spanish and the Portuguese or the Irish and the British or the Germans and the Dutch would then feel an affinity for each other that the Greeks and the Germans or the Finnish and the Spanish might not.
What does that mean for policy? It means unilateralism. You see the Danes putting up restrictions on the Schengen agreement. You see the Dutch PM talking about tossing out member countries from the euro zone. And you see lots of western Europeans talking about the ‘coming wave’ of immigration from Bulgaria and Romania with dread.
In a deep downturn, these tensions will boil over and the cohesion cannot last. It’s pure speculation how far the anti-openness wave will proceed. But the minimum I expect is at least 1 or 2 members leaving the eurozone, restrictions on Romanian and Bulgarian workers, and a few more dissenters to Schengen.

Tratto da:
www.economonitor.com 11 settembre 2011